UNDERSTANDING RAINFALL PATTERNS IN KANO, NIGERIA: A 40-YEAR RETROSPECTIVE STUDY
Keywords:
Climate change, Rainfall, Cramer’s test, FluctuationsAbstract
The phenomenon of climate change is alarming threatening the continuous survival of man and his environment. The changes in climate are mostly observed in the fluctuations and trends in rainfall patterns. Nigeria experiences fluctuations in rainfall with the Northern part being the most vulnerable. In this study, 40 years rainfall data for were analyzed. Rainfall data for Kano was sourced from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMETS) were used for this analysis. Standardized Coefficients of Skewness (Z1) and Kurtosis (Z2) for the meteorological station were employed to test for the normality of the data. In order to examine fluctuations and trend in rainfall series 10-year running mean and linear trend lines were calculated and plotted. Similarly, the rainfall series were sub-divided into 10-year non-overlapping sub-periods and Cramer’s test to compare the means of the sub-periods (10-years) with the mean of the whole record period (40 years). The study revealed positive trends in annual rainfall in recent years Kano (Y=11.366X+782.02). Despite the positive nature of trends, the amount of rainfall in the study area had high annual variability. In view of this, it was recommended among other measures, the need for the development of a longitudinal approach for comprehensive measures to address the shock and destruction that comes with changing climatic events
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