CLIMATE CHANGE, GEOPOLITICS AND FINANCIAL RESILIENCE OF SELECTED WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES (1980-2023).

Abstract

The study examined the impact of climate change and geopolitics on financial resilience of some selected West African countries from 1980 to 2023. The study did an examination of disruptions to ecosystems, global warming occasioned by industrial pollution and how geography, territorial disputes and military conflicts shape the economies of West African states. The purposive sampling method was used for selection of four countries with highest population growth rate in 2024. These selected countries are Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire and Niger republic. The Ex-post facto research designed was used on the secondary data sourced from world development indicator and published articles of other researchers. The study used carbon emission by industrialization, military expenses and economic growth rate to represent climate change, geopolitics and financial resilience respectively, while inflation rate served as a moderating variable. Pre and post estimation tests were carried out to ensure that estimated parameters are valid and reliable. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed for parameter estimation. The specific objectives of the study are: (i) To examine the impact of industrial pollution on economic growth of West African countries, (ii) To assess the impact of territorial dispute and military conflicts on economic growth of West African countries. The study revealed that climate change and geopolitics had a negative and non-significant impact on the economic growth rate of West African countries (1980-2023). The study recommends that targeted policy intervention need to be explored through climate adaptation strategies and geopolitical risk mitigation to counteract the negative impact of economic growth in West African countries.