PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF OFFSHORE PIPELINE UNDER CORROSION DEFECTS
Keywords:
Pipeline, Corrosion, Defects, Integrity, Risk, Assessment, FailureAbstract
The current study provides a detailed analysis of corrosion behaviour and integrity management strategies for offshore pipelines, addressing key challenges in subsea environments. Integrated empirical and probabilistic methods were adopted to evaluate corrosion mechanisms, considering defect profiling, stress analysis, and risk assessment. The study shows that at the initiation of corrosion, the pipeline thickness results in strength with time. Further analysis revealed that corrosion rates rise significantly with water temperatures above 15°C but progress more slowly below this threshold, supporting predictive models and corroborated by literature. While defect length increases steadily, the depth reaches a plateau after around 20 years, underscoring the need for continuous monitoring to manage defect progression effectively. A strong correlation was found between increased corrosion defect length and decreased failure stress ratio. For instance, after 25 years without protection, the pipeline can handle only 20% of its original design stress, reducing structural capacity. The probability of failure grows over time as the failure stress ratio drops. For example, after 17 years, with a failure stress ratio of 45%, the failure probability is 51%, rising to 75% by 25 years without protection. A comprehensive framework is proposed, integrating probabilistic risk assessment, stress load evaluation, and targeted corrosion mitigation strategies to enhance pipeline safety and reliability through structured maintenance and proactive management.
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