RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF OFFSHORE JACKET PLATFORMS UNDER PROGRESSIVE COLLAPSE USING PROBABILISTIC METHODS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16902123Keywords:
Progressive Collapse, Jacket Platform, Probabilistic Prediction, Reliability, Corrosion, Reserve Strength Ratio (RSR), Structural SafetyAbstract
This study presents a probabilistic prediction of the progressive collapse of a four-legged, fixed-type offshore jacket platform (OJP) located in the central Gulf of Guinea (GOG). The platform, constructed in 1975, consists of a steel space frame with a 15.24 x 15.24 m helideck positioned 16.46 m above mean sea level (MSL) and a production deck at 7.92 m above MSL. Structural stiffness is improved with diagonal bracing in vertical and horizontal planes. The legs are horizontally braced at four levels and vertically X-braced. The platform is supported by four piles driven to a depth of 64 m and constructed using A36 steel, with specified mechanical properties (e.g., Young’s modulus of 200 GPa, yield strength of 250 MPa). The study applied the Total Probability Theorem, reliability index, and reliability factor to estimate the platform’s probability of progressive collapse (PPC). Series and parallel system reliability theories were applied, taking into account corrosion-induced member degradation. ANOVA was used for result validation. Bracing members were grouped (A–F) for analysis, with Group D exhibiting the highest PPC failure (0.6673) and lowest reliability (0.3327), while Group A had the lowest PPC failure (0.0840) and highest reliability (0.9160). Corrosion analysis showed jacket leg-1 had the highest thickness reduction (6.560%) and PPC failure (0.06560), whereas leg-4 had the lowest (2.360% and 0.0236, respectively) and the highest reliability (0.9764). Bracing reliability was 0.99945, jacket leg reliability was 0.8328, and total system reliability was 0.8323. With a dependability factor of 1.2020 lower than the load factor of safety of 1.25 and a reserve strength ratio (RSR) of 3.9868—well above the required minimum of 1.50—the platform is deemed structurally safe.
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