SEABORNE TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA FROM 1997 – 2022

Abstract

Nigeria is currently and heavily reliant on oil exports. This makes the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. Seaborne trade can help Nigeria to diversify its economy by supporting the development of new export industries, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism. This quest to diversify the economy of Nigeria gave birth to this study. This study therefore,  investigates the effect of seaborne trade on economic growth in Nigeria from 1997 - 2022 with its specific objectives such as to determine the effect of shipping export and cargo throughput on real GDP and the effect of shipping export and cargo throughput on industrial employment. Ex - post-facto research design was adopted to achieve the objectives of the study. The study is inferential and based on quantitative method of secondary data collection sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The data collected were subjected to multivariate time series analysis using ARDL Bound Test approach in estimating the multiple regression model and Granger Causality used in estimating the effect of shipping export (Ship_exp) and cargo throughput (CTP) on Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) and industrial employment (Ind_emp) with the aid of E-views version 12.0. The sample size for this study is 25 years spanning from 1997 to 2022. The study findings show that in the short-run, shipping export (Ship_exp) had a positive and significant impact on RGDP while it had a positive and insignificant impact on RGDP in the long run. Meanwhile, cargo throughput (CTP) had a positive and significant impact on RGDP both in the short run and in the long run. The study further shows that shipping export and cargo throughput do not granger cause industrial employment. Based on the findings, the study recommends that the federal government should invest more in port infrastructure and promote export diversification.