INSECURITY AND ELECTION OUTCOMES IN NIGERIA: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECT OF FEAR ON THE VOTING BEHAVIOUR OF NIGERIANS IN THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION; LESSONS FOR 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Abstract

In the buildup of the 2015 general elections in Nigeria, the then opposition party (All Progressive Congress-APC), canvassed for votes on the basis of the high rate of insecurity of lives and properties occasioned by the Boko Haram insurgency and economic insecurity occasioned by wanton corruption in the country. They got the needed votes, won the election and unseat an incumbent government. Nigerians were engulfed by the “change mantra” of the APC. Four years down the line, insecurity of lives, properties and livelihoods never abated, instead, it soared higher. In 2019 the APC won a re-election in the heat of the killing of farmers by Fulani cattle herders in the North central and entire southern region of the country. 2023 general election is around the corner and “Bandits” have taken over the entire country kidnapping and maiming innocent Nigerians who are already enmeshed in an unprecedented economic hardship that has seen a dollar rose to N682 and price of things in the market tripled. Amidst these security challenges, the North has vowed to retain power at all cost for the fear of losing their exalted political placements while the South are kicking to have power returned for a balance in power rotation. Inside the South, the South-East extraction is calling for presidency to allay their fears of exclusion and marginalization- a bid that may likely exterminate the activities of IPOB/ESN. Thus, this paper examined the voting trajectory of Nigerians in the last two presidential election with the purpose of enlightening voters on the importance of their choice and its possible implication on the development paradigm of the country. This was done with data from extant literature and questionnaire administered to a cluster of respondents hence a correlation research design. The chi-square was used for the analysis of data generated through the questionnaire and insights were also drawn from scholarly opinions and empirical historical substantiations whose outcomes form the essence of the analysis of the paper.